Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:35:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

2D 0x2d8d…35bf other 24 markets active 6h ago coverage 61d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$190 (+8%) realized +$307 · open −$117

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip

Net edge+14%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate47%7W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$99per market

Trades / day1.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit46%portable

Net worth$631now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$276

7 days+$276

14 days+$276

30 days+$276

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)+14.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+17.2%	+6.1%	43%	43%	+79.9%
≤30d	7	+17.2%	+6.1%	43%	43%	+79.9%
≤90d	15	+26.1%	+14.1%	47%	40%	+6.1%
all	15	+26.1%	+14.1%	47%	40%	+6.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+14.1%	40%	+6.1%
10%	+3.2%	40%	-4.0%
15%	-6.8%	40%	-13.3%
20%	-15.9%	33%	-21.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 65% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +26% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +53% → late +3% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$134 vs −$84 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.39 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage

Net worth$631

Realized+$307

Unrealized−$117

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses7 / 8

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions9

Markets (closed)15 / 24

History coverage61d

Avg bet$99

Trades / day1.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 9 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$520	$412	−$108 (-21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$49	$55	+$6 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	15¢	13¢	$54	$47	−$7 (-13%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-2%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Portugal	51¢	54¢	$26	$27	+$1 (+5%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$27	$25	−$2 (-6%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Portugal	29¢	30¢	$14	$15	+$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$13	$12	−$0 (-4%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$15	$8	−$8 (-50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$16	−$16	-98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$14	−$14	-98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	Jun 17	$71	+$128	+180%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 17	$51	+$149	+291%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$103	+$51	+50%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 16	$15	−$15	-98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$8	−$8	-97%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 1?	May 02	$142	−$142	-100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	May 01	$390	+$12	+3%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 end of April?	Apr 24	$102	−$102	-100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 23?	Apr 24	$216	−$216	-100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 24?	Apr 24	$56	+$48	+85%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 22?	Apr 23	$72	+$85	+118%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 21?	Apr 22	$164	−$164	-100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 20?	Apr 20	$100	+$465	+465%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	13¢	$13	5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	20¢	$31	5h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	29¢	$15	5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	51¢	$26	5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$28	6h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	16¢	$16	14h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	14¢	$14	14h
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	SELL Norway	100¢	$200	15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	100¢	$200	15h
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	BUY Norway	35¢	$71	17h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	25¢	$26	17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$155	18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	25¢	$26	18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	15¢	$15	29h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	8¢	$8	29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$37	31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$67	31h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$15	33h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$50	46d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	15¢	$55	46d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 1?	BUY Up	36¢	$8	46d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 1?	BUY Up	36¢	$7	46d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 1?	BUY Up	34¢	$16	46d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 1?	BUY Up	22¢	$5	46d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 1?	BUY Up	22¢	$5	46d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 1?	BUY Up	22¢	$9	46d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 1?	BUY Up	43¢	$9	46d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 1?	BUY Up	43¢	$82	46d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	SELL No	100¢	$252	46d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 end of April?	BUY Yes	18¢	$92	53d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $630.73 · official $630.83 (match) · 126 history records