Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d8d…0800 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$43 (-11%) realized −$47 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$61
sports 34% +$17
world 25% −$7
crypto 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -28.6% -35.4% 27% 27% -33.4%
≤30d 11 -28.6% -35.4% 27% 27% -33.4%
≤90d 11 -28.6% -35.4% 27% 27% -33.4%
all 11 -28.6% -35.4% 27% 27% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.4% 27% -33.4%
10% -41.6% 27% -39.8%
15% -47.2% 18% -45.6%
20% -52.4% 18% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)11 / 23
History coverage4d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Morocco 79¢ 78¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 53¢ 52¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Paraguay 54¢ 54¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 21¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+51%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Jun 28 $102 −$7 -7%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 28 $3 $0 -6%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $13 +$17 +140%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $12 −$11 -98%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $8 +$2 +30%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 +$6 +129%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 53¢ $25 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Morocco 79¢ $25 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 54¢ $20 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance AND Will Canada win on 2026-0 BUY 54¢ $25 1h
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? SELL No 49¢ $96 1h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 33¢ $30 46h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Egypt (-1 BUY 33¢ $23 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 2d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $13 2d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $92 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) AND Will Japan BUY 3¢ $5 2d
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $10 2d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 3d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND W BUY 15¢ $10 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.34 · official $168.11 · 35 history records