Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:23:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2D 0x2d8b…f218 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$199 (+24%) realized +$200 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$193
sports 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +31.2% +18.7% 78% 67% +21.0%
≤30d 9 +31.2% +18.7% 78% 67% +21.0%
≤90d 9 +31.2% +18.7% 78% 67% +21.0%
all 9 +31.2% +18.7% 78% 67% +21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.7% 67% +21.0%
10% +7.4% 56% +9.4%
15% -3.0% 56% -1.2%
20% -12.5% 33% -10.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$4 · ×7.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×25.63 per $1 lost it wins $25.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized+$200
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $61 +$33 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $60 +$12 +20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $61 +$35 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $61 +$28 +46%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $82 −$6 -7%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $61 +$39 +65%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 +$47 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $60 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $71 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $61 9h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $60 28h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $60 44h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 44h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $19 46h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $61 46h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 29¢ $76 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $28 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.46 · official $269.47 (match) · 26 history records