Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:40:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2d8a…1d3a other 68 markets active 6d ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$78 (-1%) realized +$123 · open −$201
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate68%44W / 21L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$7
world 24% −$112
crypto 16% +$8
economics 16% $0
politics 4% −$1
tech 3% +$28
sports 1% +$5
finance 0% −$20
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +19.0% +7.7% 100% 33% -1.1%
≤30d 6 +25.6% +13.6% 100% 50% +7.5%
≤90d 29 +5.4% -4.6% 69% 31% -8.4%
all 65 +3.4% -6.4% 68% 26% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 26% -8.4%
10% -15.4% 11% -17.2%
15% -23.5% 6% -25.2%
20% -31.0% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$123
Unrealized−$201
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses44 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)65 / 68
History coverage233d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cap launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+6%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 63¢ 68¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ $205 $2 −$203 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $21 +$9 +42%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 10 $170 +$9 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $12 +$6 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $127 +$54 +43%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? May 26 $120 +$8 +7%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 17 $21 −$9 -41%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 08 $1,542 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 03 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 03 $32 +$3 +10%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 03 $1,560 +$42 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026? Apr 29 $15 +$3 +21%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 29 $21 −$4 -20%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $1,508 −$2 -0%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Apr 29 $98 −$16 -16%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 26 $16 $0 +3%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $1,483 $0 -0%
Will Lucknow Super Giants win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Apr 26 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $17 +$1 +7%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 21 $1,504 −$2 -0%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 18 $15 $0 -3%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2 Apr 15 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $12 +$5 +45%
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Apr 02 $17 +$6 +35%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $25 +$1 +2%
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15? Mar 20 $17 +$3 +18%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16? Mar 20 $22 +$5 +20%
Will Tesla reach $570 in March? Mar 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico receive the most votes in the first round of the D Mar 12 $26 +$3 +11%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 25 $23 −$3 -13%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 25 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Feb 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on Fe Feb 25 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis Feb 22 $13 +$2 +18%
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? Feb 06 $25 −$7 -26%
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 06 $30 −$18 -59%
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season? Feb 06 $120 +$9 +8%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 31 $46 +$3 +6%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $31 −$3 -11%
Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026? Jan 26 $19 +$3 +16%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 19 $17 −$2 -11%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio Jan 19 $30 +$2 +6%
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 19 $30 +$5 +15%
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 15 $21 +$6 +30%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 09 $69 −$7 -10%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jan 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 07 $36 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cap launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $23 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $205 6d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 6d
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $13 14d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 63¢ $12 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $170 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $127 21d
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $128 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $12 30d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? SELL Yes 48¢ $12 30d
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $120 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1,542 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1,542 44d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 79¢ $21 44d
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 91¢ $32 48d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY No 93¢ $20 48d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY No 97¢ $1,560 48d
Will Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $18 48d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 70¢ $17 48d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,506 48d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $82 48d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 90¢ $30 51d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,508 51d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 99¢ $16 51d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,483 51d
Will Lucknow Super Giants win the 2026 Indian Premier League? SELL No 99¢ $18 51d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 99¢ $18 51d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 92¢ $17 56d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,483 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.15 · official $39.58 (match) · 221 history records