Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:15:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2D 0x2d88…5871 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$138 (+19%) realized +$284 · open −$146
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$41
sports 3% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +19.4% +8.0% 62% 62% +18.1%
≤30d 8 +19.4% +8.0% 62% 62% +18.1%
≤90d 8 +19.4% +8.0% 62% 62% +18.1%
all 8 +19.4% +8.0% 62% 62% +18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.0% 62% +18.1%
10% ← realistic here -2.3% 62% +6.8%
15% -11.7% 25% -3.5%
20% -20.4% 12% -13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$4 · ×8.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.73 per $1 lost it wins $14.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$284
Unrealized−$146
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 0¢ $146 $0 −$146 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $273 +$90 +33%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $117 +$30 +26%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 −$1 -10%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$26 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $46 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 8¢ $15 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $299 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $59 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $52 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $146 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 20h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $16 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 73¢ $16 20h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 21h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $61 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $49 22h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $32 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $96 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $20 24h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $71 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $15.10 · 32 history records