Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2D 0x2d88…d5e8 crypto 411 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,778 (-0%) realized −$7,196 · open +$418
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%391W / 22L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$3,779per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$30,209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 92d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$1,298
other 11% +$3,069
world 3% −$5,379
finance 0% +$122
politics 0% +$6,506
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -27.6% -34.5% 69% 4% -9.5%
≤30d 148 -6.6% -15.5% 89% 2% -9.0%
≤90d 405 +0.8% -8.8% 95% 2% -9.4%
all 413 +1.0% -8.6% 95% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 2% -9.2%
10% -17.3% 2% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -25.3% 2% -25.8%
20% -32.7% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$5,414) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$904 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$30,209
Realized−$7,196
Unrealized+$418
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses391 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions20
Markets (closed)413 / 411
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$3,779
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 413 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $6,998 $7,001 +$4 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 86¢ $4,598 $4,807 +$210 (+5%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 92¢ 99¢ $3,704 $4,012 +$308 (+8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $3,892 $3,894 +$2 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 98¢ $1,456 $1,570 +$114 (+8%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 87¢ 98¢ $1,138 $1,288 +$150 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 57¢ $1,556 $1,273 −$283 (-18%)
Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 85¢ $1,071 $1,187 +$116 (+11%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,041 $1,064 +$22 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $852 $876 +$24 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 92¢ $774 $824 +$50 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 72¢ $475 $518 +$43 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 82¢ $510 $495 −$15 (-3%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 81¢ 62¢ $467 $359 −$108 (-23%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $272 $270 −$2 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 33¢ $430 $231 −$199 (-46%)
Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 82¢ $224 $204 −$20 (-9%)
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 23? Down 95¢ 96¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $132 $133 +$1 (+1%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 84¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 14? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 22? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 20? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 31? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 20? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on February 26? Jun 23 $9 −$983 -11381%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 26? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 31? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 4? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Jun 23 $3 −$178 -6238%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 7? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 3? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 21? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 24? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,750 +$49 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $69 +$31 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $2,138 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $5,994 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $6,689 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $2,782 +$3 +0%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $1,031 +$18 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 22 $1,079 +$23 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,597 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $20,373 +$27 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $549 +$251 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $8,996 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $4,496 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $7,432 −$903 -12%
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? Jun 20 $16,041 +$490 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $836 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $13,342 +$13 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $2,098 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $5,794 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $5,994 +$6 +0%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1,490 +$24 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $787 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5,994 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5,855 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $5,438 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $6,993 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 97¢ $82 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,597 1h
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 95¢ $72 1h
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 93¢ $27 1h
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 92¢ $21 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 100¢ $398 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 100¢ $798 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $28 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $798 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $299 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $28 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $250 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $15 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $599 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,597 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,198 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $399 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $798 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $230 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30,208.62 · official $30,208.68 (match) · 3500 history records