Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2D 0x2d7d…8bd1 crypto 897 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,279 (-18%) realized −$252 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate59%532W / 363L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day118.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$462
7 days−$181
14 days−$181
30 days−$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$66
other 24% −$188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (118 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 478 -7.7% -16.5% 54% 47% -13.8%
≤30d 895 -5.5% -14.5% 59% 50% -12.8%
≤90d 895 -5.5% -14.5% 59% 50% -12.8%
all 895 -5.5% -14.5% 59% 50% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 50% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 32% -21.1%
15% -30.2% 17% -28.8%
20% -37.0% 6% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$252
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses532 / 363
Open positions2
Markets (closed)895 / 897
History coverage21d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day118.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 895 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 80¢ 77¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 62¢ 55¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +31%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$6 -55%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -51%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$4 -31%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$2 -24%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +42%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +31%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +55%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +62%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +44%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +46%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +32%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +46%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$6 -39%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +37%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 -2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -9%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +46%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$2 -14%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$2 -14%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -17%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$5 -31%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +20%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -39%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$3 -35%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$3 -29%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $8 1m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 6m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 6m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 9m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 11m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 11m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 11m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 14m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 14m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 16m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 18m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 19m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 21m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 21m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 21m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 23m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 25m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 26m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 26m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 26m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 30m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 31m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 34m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 34m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 34m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 34m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 34m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.20 · official $9.60 · 3500 history records