Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:59:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2D 0x2d78…5c35 weather 225 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$28 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%81W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 52% +$24
sports 22% +$32
other 8% $0
politics 8% −$44
crypto 4% −$3
tech 2% −$2
world 2% +$4
finance 1% −$2
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 +25.7% +13.8% 56% 56% +0.0%
≤30d 145 +24.9% +13.0% 56% 55% -4.3%
≤90d 145 +24.9% +13.0% 56% 55% -4.3%
all 145 +24.9% +13.0% 56% 55% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.0% 55% -4.3%
10% +2.2% 55% -13.5%
15% -7.7% 50% -21.8%
20% -16.8% 39% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses81 / 64
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions80
Markets (closed)145 / 225
History coverage18d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 80 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 16? No 54¢ 100¢ $9 $16 +$7 (+85%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? No 59¢ 80¢ $6 $9 +$2 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? No 50¢ 100¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? No 77¢ 78¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 50¢ 57¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? No 68¢ 60¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 19, 2026? No 54¢ 53¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? No 78¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+28%)
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Lorenzo Giustino 16¢ 25¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? No 47¢ 55¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 70¢ 96¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? No 42¢ 92¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+118%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in June? No 75¢ 89¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? No 47¢ 52¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? No 73¢ 68¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will Warsh say "Chair" during June Press Conference? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 60¢ 74¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Refuser 38¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Yes 59¢ 72¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+21%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Over 54¢ 54¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Conference? Yes 75¢ 69¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? No 56¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? No 60¢ 60¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +56%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $2 +$3 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +41%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +66%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +69%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $1 +$2 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +81%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +58%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +92%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 +$3 +226%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$4 +414%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +335%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +152%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $2 +$3 +180%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +43%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$4 +510%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 21¢ $1 1h
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FI BUY Yes 50¢ $6 1h
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY Yes 67¢ $6 1h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $397.50 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 52¢ $3 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 16? BUY No 56¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 51¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 19? BUY No 39¢ $4 4h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY No 54¢ $6 4h
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 42¢ $2 4h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 38¢ $4 4h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 40¢ $3 4h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 30¢ $3 4h
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Petr Bar Biryukov 16¢ $2 4h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Xiaodi You 31¢ $2 4h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Melissa Mullins 21¢ $2 4h
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini BUY Peter Buldorini 13¢ $2 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $2 4h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Eliakim Coulibaly 28¢ $3 4h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino BUY Lorenzo Giustino 16¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 10h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 29¢ $2 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $4 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 60¢ $3 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.65 · official $229.46 (match) · 326 history records