Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:11:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2D
0x2d75…4e46
other · 35 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$107 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$73 · open +$33
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$447
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses14 / 7
Open positions14
Markets (closed)21 / 35
History coverage35d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 14 History 21 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days+$52
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 79¢ 97¢ $80 $99 +$19 (+24%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 78¢ 76¢ $56 $54 −$2 (-4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $48 $48 −$1 (-2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 84¢ 98¢ $40 $47 +$7 (+16%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 80¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 82¢ 90¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+10%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 82¢ 85¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 85¢ $16 $22 +$6 (+35%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? No 69¢ 76¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+9%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 83¢ 86¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 69¢ 61¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-12%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 62¢ 92¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+49%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 71¢ 63¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $25 +$6 +25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $184 +$27 +15%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31? Jun 02 $24 +$5 +21%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? Jun 01 $188 +$22 +12%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 01 $8 +$2 +21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $54 +$6 +12%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May? May 30 $24 +$7 +29%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in May? May 29 $16 −$13 -83%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May? May 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 28 $171 +$49 +29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 27 $78 +$4 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $16 +$3 +19%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $176 +$11 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $149 +$25 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 20 $49 +$4 +8%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 19 $16 +$2 +14%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? May 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $25 −$25 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 15 $12 −$8 -69%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 15 $8 −$5 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 43% +$80
crypto 29% +$66
other 15% −$67
finance 12% +$30
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $8 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $16 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $16 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $16 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $13 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $7 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $24 6h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 83¢ $16 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $40 7h
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY No 69¢ $16 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 82¢ $24 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 82¢ $24 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $16 2d
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $16 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $5 15d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in May? SELL No 15¢ $3 15d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? BUY No 95¢ $83 16d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 16d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $40 16d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? BUY No 90¢ $40 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $220 16d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $25 17d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $24 17d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $40 17d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $40 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 99¢ $82 17d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $22 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL No 99¢ $19 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 87¢ $184 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 21 -18.4% -26.1% 67% 52% -4.3%
≤90d 21 -18.4% -26.1% 67% 52% -4.3%
all 21 -18.4% -26.1% 67% 52% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 52% -4.3%
10% -33.2% 14% -13.5%
15% -39.7% 0% -21.8%
20% -45.6% 0% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $446.77 · official $446.77 (match) · 86 history records