Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:53:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d73…9aad other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18,528 (-12%) realized −$18,520 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%44W / 65L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,432per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$324
14 days+$324
30 days+$324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$4,798
other 26% −$10,275
economics 2% −$2,149
world 1% −$280
politics 0% −$673
culture 0% −$236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +58.5% +43.4% 60% 60% +52.5%
≤30d 5 +58.5% +43.4% 60% 60% +52.5%
≤90d 7 +13.2% +2.4% 43% 43% -31.5%
all 109 -6.4% -15.3% 40% 36% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 36% -20.0%
10% -23.4% 35% -27.7%
15% -30.8% 30% -34.7%
20% -37.6% 20% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$2,000) neutral
Persistence
early -21% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,032 vs −$982 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized−$18,520
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses44 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage224d
Avg bet$1,432
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $94 $96 +$2 (+2%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 49¢ 44¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $102 +$121 +119%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $99 +$299 +301%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 30 $330 −$330 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $250 −$250 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $500 −$477 -96%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Jazz vs. Bucks Mar 15 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $3,510 −$3,510 -100%
Suns vs. Pacers Mar 15 $3,080 −$3,080 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Pistons Mar 15 $88 −$88 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-05? Mar 07 $3,600 −$3,600 -100%
Clippers vs. Spurs Mar 07 $4,060 −$4,060 -100%
Lakers vs. Nuggets Mar 06 $184 +$111 +60%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 05 $4,030 +$8,970 +223%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $310 −$154 -50%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Mar 02 $4,500 −$4,500 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-21? Mar 02 $2,157 −$2,157 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-02-15? Mar 02 $4,320 −$4,320 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-27? Feb 28 $19 +$74 +400%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $170 +$1,327 +781%
76ers vs. Timberwolves Feb 23 $450 +$1,350 +300%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Feb 19 $68 +$362 +537%
Warriors vs. Suns Feb 15 $335 −$335 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? Feb 15 $640 −$640 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $2,730 −$2,730 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 15 $8,046 −$8,046 -100%
Nuggets vs. Knicks Feb 15 $5,092 −$5,092 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Heroic (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Feb 14 $3,701 +$1,439 +39%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Feb 13 $10,800 +$4,200 +39%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Feb 11 $180 +$60 +33%
Clippers vs. Rockets Feb 11 $10,220 +$3,780 +37%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 10 $300 −$257 -86%
Will Sheffield United FC win on 2026-02-09? Feb 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets Feb 10 $2,929 −$2,873 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-08? Feb 09 $470 +$314 +67%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $5,240 +$2,207 +42%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Slam Play-In Feb 07 $3,052 +$2,408 +79%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 04 $608 −$608 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 04 $1,883 +$807 +43%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 04 $6,853 +$3,147 +46%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 03 $273 +$202 +74%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs REKONIX (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 03 $1,889 +$511 +27%
Pelicans vs. Hornets Feb 03 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Feb 03 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 03 $2,320 −$2,320 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $96 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $102 22h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $72 44h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $99 3d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 3¢ $185 60d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 3¢ $31 60d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 3¢ $12 60d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 3¢ $2 60d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 3¢ $5 60d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 3¢ $7 60d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 3¢ $2 60d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 3¢ $8 60d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 3¢ $0 60d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 3¢ $16 60d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 3¢ $62 60d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY Yes 4¢ $250 77d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? SELL No 20¢ $23 99d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? BUY No 20¢ $200 99d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? BUY No 20¢ $200 99d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? BUY No 20¢ $8 99d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? BUY No 20¢ $3 99d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? BUY No 20¢ $0 99d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? BUY No 20¢ $0 99d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? BUY No 20¢ $2 99d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? BUY No 20¢ $4 99d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? BUY No 20¢ $5 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.78 · official $186.81 (match) · 1004 history records