Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d72…8229 crypto 673 markets active 3d ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$102 (-2%) realized −$102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%344W / 328L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$42
14 days−$1
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$191
other 18% +$64
sports 5% −$46
world 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -50.4% -55.2% 22% 22% -32.9%
≤30d 94 +0.2% -9.3% 61% 57% -12.0%
≤90d 341 -10.6% -19.1% 50% 46% -17.4%
all 672 -4.2% -13.4% 51% 47% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 47% -14.1%
10% -21.7% 40% -22.4%
15% -29.2% 34% -29.9%
20% -36.2% 25% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses344 / 328
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)672 / 673
History coverage160d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 672 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $75 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$6 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$15 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $25 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $24 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 07 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$3 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 07 $6 +$6 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 07 $7 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 07 $7 +$7 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $12 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 07 $12 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$5 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$4 +181%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $61 +$9 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $29 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $30 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 7d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 7d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $30 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 59¢ $21 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.67 · official $1.67 (match) · 1725 history records