Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:34:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d72…5e20 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized +$162 · open −$172
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$6
crypto 41% −$177
other 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-39.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -32.7% -39.1% 55% 0% -14.0%
≤30d 11 -32.7% -39.1% 55% 0% -14.0%
≤90d 11 -32.7% -39.1% 55% 0% -14.0%
all 11 -32.7% -39.1% 55% 0% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.1% 0% -14.0%
10% -44.9% 0% -22.2%
15% -50.2% 0% -29.8%
20% -55.1% 0% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$162
Unrealized−$172
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 86¢ 0¢ $172 $0 −$172 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros Jun 30 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $19 +$1 +7%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3 −$1 -40%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2 $0 -16%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 $0 -45%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 $0 +6%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 86¢ $173 44m
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros SELL Minnesota Twins 100¢ $202 52m
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros BUY Minnesota Twins 99¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 3h
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Hive - Game 2 Winner SELL Nemiga Gaming 100¢ $10 8h
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Nemiga Gaming 99¢ $10 9h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION (BO3) - European Pro League Group A SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $10 11h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY 4ikibamboni 99¢ $10 11h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 1 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $10 12h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 99¢ $10 12h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 1 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 97¢ $10 12h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 84¢ $9 13h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 30h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 30h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 47h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 87¢ $1 47h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 47h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 31 history records