Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:58:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d6f…cc54 sports 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 320d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-18%) realized −$50 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$6
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$3
weather 23% −$32
crypto 9% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-50.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 0% -5.6%
≤30d 7 -37.8% -43.7% 43% 14% -20.7%
≤90d 7 -37.8% -43.7% 43% 14% -20.7%
all 8 -45.5% -50.7% 38% 12% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.7% 12% -26.8%
10% -55.4% 12% -33.8%
15% -59.7% 0% -40.2%
20% -63.7% 0% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$50
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage320d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Honor of Kings: Wolves vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Group 3 Wolves 79¢ 74¢ $45 $42 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Honor of Kings: Weibo Gaming vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro League Stag Jun 17 $60 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $95 +$6 +6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 4? Jun 03 $36 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin above $114,000 on August 1? Aug 01 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.44 · official $42.44 (match) · 18 history records