Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:11:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d6d…2076 crypto 663 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (103 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$66 (-5%) realized −$65 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%315W / 346L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day103.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (103 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 661 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 48% -16.1%
≤30d 661 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 48% -16.1%
≤90d 661 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 48% -16.1%
all 661 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 48% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover103.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 48% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 48% -24.1%
15% -31.7% 48% -31.4%
20% -38.4% 47% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses315 / 346
Open positions2
Markets (closed)661 / 663
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day103.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 661 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 52¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 326 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.02 · official $1.02 (match) · 1052 history records