Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:24:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2D
0x2d6c…5c05
sports · 13 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$109 +17%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$114 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$125
Realized+$114
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$114
14 days+$114
30 days+$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 39¢ 39¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Scotland 40¢ 36¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-11%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score No 47¢ 50¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 58¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score No 63¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $61 +$26 +43%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 +$32 +79%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 +$68 +134%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $50 +$20 +40%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 +$47 +93%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$1 -1%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$71 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 92% +$110
politics 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $30 48m
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $51 51m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $87 54m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $73 54m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $41 22h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $61 22h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $51 23h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $51 23h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $119 23h
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 40h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 77¢ $50 45h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $70 45h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $98 45h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 45h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $50 47h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $50 47h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +22.7% +11.1% 60% 60% +10.8%
≤30d 10 +22.7% +11.1% 60% 60% +10.8%
≤90d 10 +22.7% +11.1% 60% 60% +10.8%
all 10 +22.7% +11.1% 60% 60% +10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.1% 60% +10.8%
10% +0.4% 60% +0.2%
15% -9.3% 60% -9.5%
20% -18.2% 40% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.21 · official $125.21 (match) · 21 history records