Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d6a…32f8 other 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 88L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$19
politics 17% −$4
economics 6% −$1
tech 4% −$1
sports 3% −$39
world 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -0.0% -9.5% 23% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 -10.2% -18.8% 9% 4% -9.8%
all 97 -10.2% -18.8% 9% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 4% -9.8%
10% -26.6% 4% -18.4%
15% -33.7% 4% -26.3%
20% -40.2% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×5.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)97 / 100
History coverage87d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $126 $126 +$0 (+0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $88 $88 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $304 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $57 $0 +1%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $330 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $278 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 05 $72 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 05 $96 $0 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $33 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $238 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $256 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $254 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $239 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 01 $243 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $252 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $240 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $258 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $476 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $241 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 17 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $259 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $244 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $249 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $257 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $252 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $260 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $249 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $246 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 13 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $248 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $270 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $248 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $245 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $253 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $513 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 20h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 24h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $88 47h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 5d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $126 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 12d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 14d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $51 14d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $51 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $57 22d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $72 23d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $32 23d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 24d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 24d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 25d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $96 27d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $45 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $45 28d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 29d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 29d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 31d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.37 · official $244.37 (match) · 260 history records