Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2D 0x2d69…3553 sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$85 (+11%) realized +$86 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate71%29W / 12L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$107
14 days+$88
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$53
other 50% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +18.8% +7.4% 72% 67% +4.1%
≤30d 41 +15.7% +4.7% 71% 66% +1.3%
≤90d 41 +15.7% +4.7% 71% 66% +1.3%
all 41 +15.7% +4.7% 71% 66% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.7% 66% +1.3%
10% -5.3% 54% -8.4%
15% -14.5% 51% -17.3%
20% -22.9% 37% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$86
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses29 / 12
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage8d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $5 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $50 +$9 +18%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$13 -64%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$18 +176%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $5 +$5 +106%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $5 +$6 +109%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 +$8 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$2 +7%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$4 +21%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +49%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 +$2 +11%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 +$8 +76%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $5 +$7 +134%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $15 +$9 +57%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$9 +90%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 +$7 +70%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$3 +26%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$8 +79%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $100 +$3 +4%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $20 +$16 +78%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$12 +58%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$15 +49%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$10 +100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $45 +$23 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Uzbekistan 65¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 2h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 8h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $30 15h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 16h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $20 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 18h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $28 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 68¢ $11 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 32¢ $5 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 98¢ $32 23h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 47¢ $5 23h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 72¢ $20 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria $0 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $24 26h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 59¢ $15 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 41h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 43h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 69¢ $15 43h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 44h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 90¢ $20 44h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 56¢ $5 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 56¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.40 · official $19.40 (match) · 83 history records