Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d68…4b92 sports 50 markets active 2d ago coverage 19d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$936 (+4%) realized +$940 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate44%19W / 24L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$523per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$344est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$5,150
other 0% −$1
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-48.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -41.3% -46.9% 40% 13% -33.1%
≤30d 43 -43.3% -48.7% 44% 12% -34.6%
≤90d 43 -43.3% -48.7% 44% 12% -34.6%
all 43 -43.3% -48.7% 44% 12% -34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.7% 12% -34.6%
10% -53.6% 7% -40.9%
15% -58.1% 7% -46.6%
20% -62.2% 7% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$693) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -35% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$236 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$940
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses19 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$344
Open positions7
Markets (closed)43 / 50
History coverage19d
Avg bet$523
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 75¢ 98¢ $43 $56 +$13 (+31%)
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+7%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 84¢ 55¢ $8 $6 −$3 (-35%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 50¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 52¢ 2¢ $16 $1 −$15 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $623 −$406 -65%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $214 +$136 +64%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $693 −$315 -46%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $693 +$7 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,192 −$5 -0%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $751 +$4 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $693 +$7 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $693 −$287 -41%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $693 −$266 -38%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $34 +$6 +16%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $495 +$5 +1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $307 −$7 -2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $488 −$390 -80%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $252 −$43 -17%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $683 −$144 -21%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $576 −$5 -1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $698 +$2 +0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $813 −$343 -42%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $698 −$350 -50%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $700 +$6 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $892 −$279 -31%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $792 +$8 +1%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $189 +$111 +59%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,067 −$521 -49%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $124 +$76 +61%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $693 −$224 -32%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $693 −$322 -46%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $721 +$53 +7%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $693 +$7 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $697 +$3 +0%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $692 +$8 +1%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $693 +$7 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $693 +$7 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $693 −$504 -73%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $855 −$11 -1%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $809 −$422 -52%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $780 −$398 -51%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $42 +$8 +19%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $792 −$128 -16%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner May 30 $651 +$49 +8%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 30 $679 −$203 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $699 44h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 54¢ $0 44h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 54¢ $27 44h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 54¢ $27 44h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $350 45h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 61¢ $214 45h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 31¢ $4 47h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 31¢ $9 47h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 31¢ $45 47h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 31¢ $31 47h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 31¢ $31 47h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 31¢ $93 47h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 31¢ $4 47h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 58¢ $406 47h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 16¢ $30 47h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 16¢ $2 47h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $699 47h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 45¢ $180 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 45¢ $135 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $4 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $4 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $4 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $2 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $4 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $7 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $14 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $70 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $4 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $7 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.25 · official $109.32 (match) · 351 history records