Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:48:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d64…e55f crypto 1060 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (129 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$423 (-3%) realized −$423 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate66%800W / 416L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day129.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$625
7 days−$661
14 days−$749
30 days−$1,120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$492
sports 1% +$17
other 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (129 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 537 -31.9% -38.4% 59% 14% -22.5%
≤30d 1216 -16.5% -24.5% 66% 22% -15.3%
≤90d 1216 -16.5% -24.5% 66% 22% -15.3%
all 1216 -16.5% -24.5% 66% 22% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover129.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.5% 22% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.7% 10% -23.4%
15% -38.3% 5% -30.8%
20% -44.4% 3% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$423
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses800 / 416
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1216 / 1060
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day129.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1216 Trades
no open positions (275 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records