Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:09:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2d61…0040 other 196 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,567 (+1%) realized +$1,567 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate23%45W / 150L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$1,542per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$22
14 days+$6
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$169
other 33% −$118
sports 12% +$1,914
culture 4% −$13
economics 3% −$10
world 2% −$127
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 56 +7.9% -2.4% 14% 11% -9.4%
≤90d 114 +0.3% -9.3% 11% 8% -9.1%
all 195 +4.3% -5.6% 23% 12% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 12% -9.1%
10% -14.6% 12% -17.8%
15% -22.9% 11% -25.7%
20% -30.5% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,026) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$8 · ×7.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized+$1,567
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses45 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)195 / 196
History coverage141d
Avg bet$1,542
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $156 $156 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $855 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $234 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,338 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,948 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $829 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,225 −$5 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $1,887 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $4,821 −$6 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $1,581 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,686 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5,047 −$5 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,645 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $7,606 −$13 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,574 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,536 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,239 −$4 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,995 −$5 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2,899 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,243 −$2 -0%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $76 +$76 +101%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $4,729 −$5 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,649 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $2,667 −$4 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,652 −$4 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $1,665 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,679 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,609 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $3,073 −$3 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $57 +$118 +206%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $49 +$33 +67%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $4,350 −$6 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $418 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $748 +$1 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $530 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,855 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $3,042 −$3 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $7,264 −$8 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $2,671 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $4,911 −$6 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $1,952 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $2,248 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $3,797 −$6 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $2,231 −$4 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $3,537 −$4 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $1,971 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $252 35m
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $253 1h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 19h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $234 20h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $236 20h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $236 21h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $214 26h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $215 28h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $213 44h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $214 45h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $204 46h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $205 47h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $245 2d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $245 2d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,522 3d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,525 3d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,579 3d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,581 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,651 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,654 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,683 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,686 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,568 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,570 8d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,642 8d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,645 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,574 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,577 9d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,571 9d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,574 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.18 · official $156.18 (match) · 691 history records