Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d5c…e8b9 politics 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%2W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 84% −$13
other 15% −$7
sports 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -15.6% -23.6% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 20 -16.9% -24.8% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 47 -17.2% -25.1% 2% 0% -10.1%
all 52 -15.8% -23.8% 4% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 0% -10.1%
10% -31.1% 0% -18.7%
15% -37.8% 0% -26.6%
20% -43.9% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses2 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage245d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $169 $169 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $2 $0 -21%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $2 $0 -17%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $190 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $357 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2 $0 -19%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $172 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2 $0 -17%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -16%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $180 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -21%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -21%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $182 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 09 $310 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1 $0 -37%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $2 $0 -16%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $2 $0 -14%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1 −$1 -37%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1 $0 -19%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1 $0 -19%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1 $0 -19%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $13 −$1 -8%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $37 −$2 -5%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $8 −$1 -12%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $4 $0 -10%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $3 $0 -12%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $1 $0 -21%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $3 $0 -13%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $180 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $219 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $175 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $269 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $169 $0 -0%
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $1 $0 -17%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 07 $160 $0 -0%
Will Sungjae Im win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 02 $1 $0 -14%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $2 $0 -14%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $1 $0 -33%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $4 $0 -11%
Will Denny McCarthy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 26 $3 $0 -7%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $2 $0 -8%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jan 27 $16 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 1h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 2h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 18h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 20h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 20h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 21h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 25h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 27h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 28h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 37h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 42h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 44h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 45h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 2d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 3d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 3d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 3d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 3d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.72 · official $168.72 (match) · 153 history records