Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:31:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2D 0x2d5b…1b89 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$84 (-5%) realized +$146 · open −$230
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$362per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$223
politics 11% −$187
other 6% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -15.0% -23.1% 67% 67% -22.9%
≤30d 3 -15.0% -23.1% 67% 67% -22.9%
≤90d 3 -15.0% -23.1% 67% 67% -22.9%
all 3 -15.0% -23.1% 67% 67% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 67% -22.9%
10% -30.5% 33% -30.3%
15% -37.2% 0% -37.0%
20% -43.3% 0% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$500 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$146
Unrealized−$230
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage12d
Avg bet$362
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 26¢ $100 $56 −$44 (-44%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 25¢ 1¢ $193 $6 −$187 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $504 −$500 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $504 +$177 +35%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $503 +$100 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 50m
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $504 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 73¢ $504 3h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $503 6h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 25¢ $199 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.58 · official $62.58 (match) · 7 history records