Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2D 0x2d58…0502 crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$72 (+19%) realized +$73 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%23W / 22L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$59
sports 23% −$17
other 18% +$27
world 5% −$6
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -8.9% -17.6% 51% 44% +7.2%
≤30d 45 -8.9% -17.6% 51% 44% +7.2%
≤90d 45 -8.9% -17.6% 51% 44% +7.2%
all 45 -8.9% -17.6% 51% 44% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 44% +7.2%
10% -25.5% 38% -3.0%
15% -32.7% 36% -12.4%
20% -39.3% 27% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$73
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses23 / 22
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)45 / 52
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Yes 26¢ 21¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 39¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$25 +97%
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 28 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $25 +$33 +129%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1 $0 -4%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1 $0 -4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 27 $5 $0 +6%
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Jun 27 $5 +$1 +20%
IR Iran to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 −$5 -49%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $11 −$5 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$12 +45%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$3 +67%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 +$3 +50%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 +$4 +70%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 26 $4 +$4 +103%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Norway to score first vs. France? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$5 +22%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$14 +46%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$16 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 +$1 +21%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 3h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 29h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 29h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $5 29h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? SELL Yes 42¢ $6 29h
IR Iran to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 43h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 0¢ $5 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? BUY No 0¢ $1 43h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 3¢ $1 43h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $5 43h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 43h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 43h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 43h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 43h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 43h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 43h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 44h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $11 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.92 · official $4.94 (match) · 93 history records