Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:13:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2D 0x2d58…845f sports 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+2%) realized +$4 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%25W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$23
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$3
economics 18% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +283.2% +246.7% 100% 100% +246.9%
≤30d 83 +3.6% -6.2% 29% 29% -4.8%
≤90d 83 +3.6% -6.2% 29% 29% -4.8%
all 86 +2.4% -7.3% 29% 28% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 28% -6.6%
10% -16.2% 28% -15.6%
15% -24.3% 28% -23.7%
20% -31.7% 28% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses25 / 61
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions31
Markets (closed)86 / 117
History coverage139d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +188%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +226%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$6 +596%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Indonesia vs. Mozambique end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Azerbaijan vs. San Marino end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Philippines vs. Myanmar end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Guatemala end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Kosovo vs. Andorra end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Júbilo Iwata vs. FC Ōsaka end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +206%
Will Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +216%
Will Vegalta Sendai vs. Kataller Toyama end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +216%
Will Albirex Niigata vs. Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Armenia vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +238%
Will FC Gifu vs. Gainare Tottori end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Qatar vs. El Salvador end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Australia vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 +$3 +307%
Will Canada vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 +$3 +307%
Will Albania vs. Luxembourg end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sagan Tosu vs. Shōnan Bellmāre end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Kōchi United SC end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.19 · official $30.19 (match) · 153 history records