Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:45:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d57…7aec other 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$60 (-0%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%19W / 116L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$26
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$17
politics 25% −$20
other 21% −$18
crypto 12% +$2
culture 5% −$4
world 3% −$4
economics 3% −$3
finance 3% −$12
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.8% -10.3% 4% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 69 -0.7% -10.1% 10% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 119 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.8%
all 135 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses19 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage107d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $158 −$3 -2%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $110 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $245 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $226 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham Jun 16 $43 −$2 -4%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $112 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $247 −$3 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $149 −$1 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $97 −$1 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $229 −$1 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $67 $0 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $434 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $77 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $137 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $252 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 04 $66 −$2 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $53 $0 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $56 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $56 −$1 -2%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $231 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $41 −$1 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $56 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $63 +$1 +2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $395 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $58 −$1 -2%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $44 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $114 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $61 1h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $48 1h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $48 7h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $59 7h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $60 11h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $49 12h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $49 19h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $41 20h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $41 28h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $51 28h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $51 32h
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham SELL No 91¢ $41 33h
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham BUY No 95¢ $43 39h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $43 40h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $44 46h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 46h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $54 2d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $54 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $55 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $56 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $54 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $54 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $55 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $56 3d
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $39 3d
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $40 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $33 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.12 · official $61.12 (match) · 541 history records