Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:43:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d56…4737 other 266 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%14W / 251L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$44
sports 24% −$21
economics 8% −$8
politics 7% −$6
culture 7% −$7
crypto 5% −$5
world 4% −$4
tech 2% +$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 62 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 189 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 265 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses14 / 251
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)265 / 266
History coverage136d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $1,046 −$2 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $428 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $314 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $122 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $198 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $319 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $340 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $157 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $772 −$2 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $227 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $445 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $974 −$3 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $342 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $289 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $257 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $353 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $61 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $223 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $129 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $285 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $267 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $253 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $504 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $220 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $178 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 28 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 27 $68 $0 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $421 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $9 4h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $48 5h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $57 6h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $57 8h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $57 9h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 12h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 13h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 14h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 16h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 20h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 22h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 27h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 28h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 33h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 35h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $57 35h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $57 37h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 39h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 40h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 3d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $58 3d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $58 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.70 · official $56.70 (match) · 1398 history records