Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:57:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2d54…396b crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-2%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate68%17W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day54.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +2.4% -7.3% 68% 60% -8.4%
≤30d 25 +2.4% -7.3% 68% 60% -8.4%
≤90d 25 +2.4% -7.3% 68% 60% -8.4%
all 25 +2.4% -7.3% 68% 60% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 60% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 36% -17.2%
15% -24.3% 24% -25.2%
20% -31.7% 24% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses17 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day54.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$4 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $7 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $6 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records