Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:20:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d4c…7b52 crypto 902 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$213 (+1%) realized +$213 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate85%769W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$39
14 days−$304
30 days−$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -1.5% -10.9% 84% 32% -10.8%
≤30d 696 -0.5% -10.0% 86% 28% -10.2%
≤90d 902 +0.1% -9.4% 85% 27% -9.8%
all 902 +0.1% -9.4% 85% 27% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 27% -9.8%
10% -18.1% 14% -18.4%
15% -26.0% 8% -26.3%
20% -33.3% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$40 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$213
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses769 / 133
Open positions0
Markets (closed)902 / 902
History coverage54d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 902 Trades
no open positions (112 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$59 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $49 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$91 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $36 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $49 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $19 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $53 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $49 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $50 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $50 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.48 · official $36.49 (match) · 1756 history records