Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2D 0x2d46…d383 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$304 (-6%) realized −$529 · open +$225
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%15W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$174
14 days+$127
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$171
sports 32% −$25
politics 6% −$11
crypto 1% −$46
culture 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +189.2% +161.7% 100% 100% +161.7%
≤30d 2 +44.6% +30.8% 50% 50% +74.0%
≤90d 7 -56.1% -60.3% 14% 14% -68.6%
all 43 -9.3% -17.9% 35% 30% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 30% -11.8%
10% -25.8% 28% -20.2%
15% -32.9% 28% -27.9%
20% -39.5% 28% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% too few recent
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$174 vs −$102 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized−$529
Unrealized+$225
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage270d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 57¢ $45 $172 +$128 (+283%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? No 20¢ 64¢ $45 $143 +$98 (+217%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $92 +$174 +189%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $90 −$74 -82%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $180 −$180 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? Apr 04 $45 −$45 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5 Mar 24 $90 −$90 -100%
Will SS Lazio vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Mar 24 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 24 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $90 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Feb 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-02-08? Feb 10 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $90 −$80 -89%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $180 −$150 -83%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $180 +$238 +132%
Will SS Lazio win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $90 +$472 +524%
Will AS Roma vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? Dec 01 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26? Nov 26 $200 +$9 +4%
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? Nov 25 $340 +$367 +108%
Will Leeds United vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? Nov 23 $135 −$135 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $100 +$144 +144%
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? Nov 22 $70 +$91 +131%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-11-06? Nov 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 05 $215 −$215 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Genoa end in a draw? Nov 03 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Juventus win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $105 +$54 +51%
Will Juventus win on 2025-10-26? Oct 27 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Gambia win on 2025-10-10? Oct 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Oct 10 $50 −$35 -70%
Will Scotland vs. Greece end in a draw? Oct 10 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 08 $30 +$4 +14%
Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-09-29? Oct 04 $70 −$70 -100%
Will AS Roma vs. Lille end in a draw? Oct 04 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Juventus win on 2025-10-01? Oct 04 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Atalanta vs. Como end in a draw? Oct 04 $80 +$168 +209%
Tigers vs. Guardians Oct 01 $130 +$2 +2%
Red Sox vs. Yankees Oct 01 $180 +$317 +176%
Will Genoa vs. Lazio end in a draw? Sep 29 $170 −$121 -71%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-09-28? Sep 28 $297 +$334 +113%
Will Lecce vs. Bologna end in a draw? Sep 28 $80 +$86 +108%
Will Tottenham vs. Wolves end in a draw? Sep 27 $80 +$155 +194%
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Sep 27 $306 −$11 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 20¢ $46 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $46 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 34¢ $92 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $46 8d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $90 57d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $90 57d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $90 69d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $90 69d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-12? SELL Yes 7¢ $16 72d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 38¢ $90 72d
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-04-05? BUY Yes 22¢ $90 79d
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-04-05? BUY Yes 30¢ $90 79d
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $45 80d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $90 94d
Will SS Lazio vs. AC Milan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $90 100d
SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $90 128d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-14? SELL Yes 24¢ $90 129d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $90 130d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 133d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-10? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 133d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 27¢ $90 133d
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-02-08? BUY Yes 33¢ $180 135d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-12-27? SELL Yes 7¢ $30 178d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-12-27? BUY Yes 43¢ $180 181d
Will AS Roma win on 2025-12-15? SELL Yes 100¢ $418 189d
Will AS Roma win on 2025-12-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $180 190d
Will SS Lazio win on 2025-12-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $562 192d
Will SS Lazio win on 2025-12-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $90 192d
Will AS Roma vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $125 205d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26? SELL Yes 48¢ $209 209d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.38 · official $299.62 · 104 history records