Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:49:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2d46…3e2d sports 573 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19,261 (+14%) realized +$19,497 · open −$236
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate53%303W / 265L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day60.1pace
Fees−$1,191est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$486
7 days+$658
14 days+$5,680
30 days+$8,956
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$12,255
other 29% −$201
world 2% +$235
weather 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +33.1% +20.4% 59% 43% -10.1%
≤30d 359 +12.1% +1.4% 52% 38% -4.9%
≤90d 568 +10.2% -0.3% 53% 36% -4.4%
all 568 +10.2% -0.3% 53% 36% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.3% 36% -4.4%
10% ← realistic here -9.8% 28% -13.5%
15% -18.5% 21% -21.9%
20% -26.5% 17% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$78 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized+$19,497
Unrealized−$236
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses303 / 265
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$1,191
Open positions5
Markets (closed)568 / 573
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$245
Trades / day60.1
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 568 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Nigeria 29¢ 18¢ $203 $122 −$80 (-40%)
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Afghanistan 10¢ $210 $51 −$159 (-76%)
Will Malaga CF achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026-27 season? No 56¢ 76¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 5.5 Over $0 $0 −$0 (-55%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 4.5 Over $0 $0 −$0 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Haskovo: Selena Janicijevic vs Yoana Konstantinova Jun 17 $1,259 +$51 +4%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $142 +$118 +83%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 $0 -3%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $144 +$22 +15%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $103 +$27 +26%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez Jun 16 $219 −$8 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $224 +$8 +3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $1,479 −$1,179 -80%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $150 +$150 +100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $206 +$159 +77%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $47 +$19 +41%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 15 $495 −$128 -26%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2,373 +$172 +7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $13 +$1,077 +7993%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $104 +$29 +28%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $65 +$203 +313%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $533 −$92 -17%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2,910 +$90 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3,239 +$57 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $33 −$24 -73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $419 +$2 +0%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 14 $337 −$16 -5%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 14 $247 −$247 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $142 −$106 -75%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $705 +$300 +43%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $98 +$32 +33%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $611 −$4 -1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $60 +$40 +66%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 14 $379 +$72 +19%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,085 −$68 -6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $20 +$10 +49%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $65 +$28 +43%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $81 +$419 +517%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $64 +$40 +63%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $200 −$6 -3%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $160 +$40 +25%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Completed matc Jun 13 $274 +$15 +6%
Will Hurricanes win? Jun 13 $295 +$13 +4%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $213 +$17 +8%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $210 −$71 -34%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Zimbabwe High Performance Xi vs Brazil Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
OC Safi vs. Kawkab AC: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $148 −$148 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Nigeria 29¢ $82 28m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Nigeria 29¢ $33 28m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Nigeria 29¢ $17 28m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Nigeria 29¢ $12 28m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Nigeria 29¢ $44 28m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Nigeria 29¢ $12 29m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Nigeria 29¢ $0 30m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Nigeria 29¢ $0 30m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Nigeria 29¢ $1 30m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Nigeria 29¢ $1 30m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi SELL Nigeria 58¢ $42 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Nigeria 52¢ $18 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Nigeria 48¢ $19 1h
ITF Haskovo: Selena Janicijevic vs Yoana Konstantinova BUY Selena Janicijevic 96¢ $743 1h
ITF Haskovo: Selena Janicijevic vs Yoana Konstantinova BUY Selena Janicijevic 96¢ $516 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 12¢ $234 2h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 10¢ $200 2h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 11¢ $220 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $3 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $166 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $42 13h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $3 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $77 13h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $51 14h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $29 14h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $113 14h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand $10 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand $4 17h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino BUY Maks Kasnikowski 79¢ $16 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.07 · official $187.27 (match) · 3500 history records