Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:49:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2D
0x2d45…ed48
other · 6 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$34 -45%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$35 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%
Chart Positions 2 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$35
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $34 −$34 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 75% −$35
sports 19% $0
crypto 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $19 16h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 16h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 17h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -29.0% -35.8% 0% 0% -65.7%
≤30d 4 -29.0% -35.8% 0% 0% -65.7%
≤90d 4 -29.0% -35.8% 0% 0% -65.7%
all 4 -29.0% -35.8% 0% 0% -65.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.8% 0% -65.7%
10% -41.9% 0% -69.0%
15% -47.5% 0% -72.0%
20% -52.7% 0% -74.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.91 · official $18.91 (match) · 12 history records