Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:17:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d41…c1fd world 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% $0
other 12% $0
politics 8% +$1
crypto 3% $0
weather 2% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 15 +1.1% -8.5% 20% 7% -9.7%
≤90d 15 +1.1% -8.5% 20% 7% -9.7%
all 28 -2.2% -11.5% 39% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 7% -9.5%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage481d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $62 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $67 −$2 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $33 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $32 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 06 $17 $0 +2%
Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Apr 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 02 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April? Mar 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 30 $18 +$1 +3%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $17 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 21? Mar 21 $17 $0 +1%
Trump negative approval before March? Mar 20 $15 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $31 15m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 51¢ $30 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $33 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $33 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $6 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $14 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $13 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $33 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $33 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $33 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $29 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $29 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $33 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $33 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $2 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $29 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $3 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $32 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $34 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $6 14d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $21 14d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $10 14d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $37 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records