Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:39:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d40…ec52 sports 405 markets active 1h ago coverage 263d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 263d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15,346 (+3%) realized +$15,645 · open −$299
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%234W / 166L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,407per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$1,714est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$11,546now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 263d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$10,404
politics 20% −$792
economics 17% +$12,876
other 8% −$5,595
world 5% −$197
crypto 1% −$474
tech 1% +$2,567
culture 0% −$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -6.1% -15.1% 48% 48% -21.8%
≤30d 111 -0.5% -9.9% 53% 52% -13.0%
≤90d 302 +1.0% -8.6% 60% 57% -13.0%
all 400 -0.5% -9.9% 58% 53% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 53% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 46% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 38% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 27% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$850) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$403 vs −$582 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$11,546
Realized+$15,645
Unrealized−$299
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses234 / 166
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1,714
Open positions5
Markets (closed)400 / 405
History coverage263d ⚠
Avg bet$1,407
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 400 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 86¢ $8,330 $8,555 +$225 (+3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1,660 $1,445 −$215 (-13%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 66¢ 64¢ $660 $645 −$15 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 60¢ 60¢ $480 $484 +$4 (+1%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 31¢ 24¢ $310 $235 −$75 (-24%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 45¢ 46¢ $180 $182 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $198 −$150 -76%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,380 −$1,280 -93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $533 +$267 +50%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $195 −$195 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $188 −$188 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $285 −$285 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $168 −$168 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $115 −$114 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $416 −$195 -47%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 14 $207 −$207 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $276 −$276 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 14 $185 −$185 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $515 −$515 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $547 −$547 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $73 +$127 +172%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $206 +$94 +46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $244 +$156 +64%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $505 +$295 +58%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $172 +$228 +133%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $501 +$199 +40%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $66 +$134 +203%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $135 +$165 +122%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $177 +$123 +70%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $147 +$89 +60%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $107 +$93 +86%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $91 +$109 +119%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $76 −$32 -42%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $299 +$201 +67%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $305 +$195 +64%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $96 −$96 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $118 −$118 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $433 +$367 +85%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $766 −$687 -90%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $443 +$357 +81%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $102 +$147 +144%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 09 $1,300 +$500 +38%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $292 +$308 +105%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $347 −$144 -41%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $537 +$263 +49%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $174 −$174 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 07 $84 −$84 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $123 −$123 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $256 −$256 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 07 $300 +$200 +67%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $350 +$150 +43%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $468 +$132 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $247 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $43 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $100 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $141 12h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $95 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $355 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $305 12h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $8 12h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $164 12h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $4 13h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $4 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $198 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 18h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 39¢ $195 20h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 47¢ $61 20h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 47¢ $30 21h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 47¢ $89 21h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 47¢ $9 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $277 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $7 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $1 25h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 56¢ $168 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $98 26h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $133 28h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $133 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,545.94 · official $11,545.94 (match) · 3500 history records