Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:45:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2D 0x2d3d…0299 sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,092 (+10%) realized +$1,148 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 24L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$167est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,479now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$294
7 days+$583
14 days+$658
30 days+$747
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$1,041
other 29% −$207
crypto 4% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +10.2% -0.3% 29% 29% -2.4%
≤30d 34 +11.5% +0.9% 29% 29% -1.9%
≤90d 34 +11.5% +0.9% 29% 29% -1.9%
all 34 +11.5% +0.9% 29% 29% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 29% -1.9%
10% -8.8% 26% -11.3%
15% -17.6% 21% -19.8%
20% -25.7% 18% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$235 vs −$67 · ×3.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$1,479
Realized+$1,148
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 24
Est. fees paid−$167
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 39
History coverage48d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $720 $693 −$27 (-4%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 50¢ $360 $344 −$16 (-4%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 76¢ $300 $288 −$12 (-4%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Under 72¢ 72¢ $155 $154 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $98 −$31 -32%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $436 −$36 -8%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $228 −$137 -60%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $111 −$90 -81%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $289 −$162 -56%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $209 −$109 -52%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $103 −$5 -5%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $131 −$7 -6%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $421 −$41 -10%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $210 +$320 +152%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $204 +$126 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $247 −$14 -6%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $103 +$27 +26%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $103 −$95 -92%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $643 +$141 +22%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $671 −$327 -49%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $763 −$14 -2%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $6 $0 -5%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $214 −$21 -10%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 24 $104 −$14 -13%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $107 −$12 -11%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $103 +$257 +250%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- Jun 23 $397 −$143 -36%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $407 −$285 -70%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $205 −$7 -4%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $374 +$933 +250%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $294 +$90 +31%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $236 +$238 +101%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $325 −$32 -10%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $124 +$109 +88%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $377 −$3 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2 $0 -4%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $292 +$105 +36%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $308 −$16 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $157 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $67 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 12h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $302 12h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $239 12h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $91 22h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $162 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $206 28h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 30¢ $206 28h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $436 47h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $214 47h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $264 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 47¢ $525 47h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $21 47h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 26¢ $127 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 16¢ $100 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 16¢ $98 2d
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $124 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 64¢ $380 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 2d
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $131 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $231 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $98 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $215 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $103 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $209 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $111 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $206 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 59¢ $233 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $247 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,479.39 · official $1,479.39 (match) · 146 history records