Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:17:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d3d…a46f other 182 markets active 17h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$954 (+0%) realized +$952 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate19%35W / 145L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$1,290per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$14
14 days−$27
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$370
politics 38% −$118
sports 9% +$1,378
economics 3% −$4
world 2% +$17
culture 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 38 +1.9% -7.8% 8% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 99 -1.4% -10.8% 7% 4% -9.0%
all 180 -1.9% -11.3% 19% 11% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 11% -9.2%
10% -19.8% 10% -17.9%
15% -27.5% 9% -25.8%
20% -34.6% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,800) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$9 · ×6.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$421
Realized+$952
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses35 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)180 / 182
History coverage169d
Avg bet$1,290
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $209 $210 +$1 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $209 $210 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $1,705 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $2,052 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,824 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,874 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 23 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,690 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $935 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,381 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $3,255 −$5 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 17 $842 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,800 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,430 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $3,922 −$5 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $955 −$2 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,989 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,193 −$5 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $949 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,577 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $3,171 −$4 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $2,209 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $2,060 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $67 +$29 +44%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $4,491 −$5 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 04 $48 +$64 +134%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $932 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $998 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $859 −$1 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $357 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,880 −$3 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $4,945 −$6 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $3,002 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $214 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,852 −$2 -0%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $85 −$85 -100%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $2,155 −$3 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 23 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $2,470 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,122 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $3,332 −$4 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $2,346 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $210 17h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $380 38h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $380 40h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $368 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $369 4d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $330 4d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $330 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $216 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $216 5d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $395 5d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $396 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $314 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $314 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $328 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $328 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $531 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $532 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $319 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $320 8d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $335 10d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $335 10d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $676 10d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $677 10d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $601 11d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $602 11d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $841 11d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $842 11d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $582 13d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $583 13d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $791 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $420.53 · official $420.53 (match) · 667 history records