Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d3d…11a8 politics 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%4W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$4
sports 23% −$2
other 12% −$1
crypto 5% $0
world 2% $0
economics 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.7%
all 42 -8.0% -16.8% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -24.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses4 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage224d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $212 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $208 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $109 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $101 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 08 $103 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $102 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 21 $104 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 01 $2 −$1 -38%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 01 $103 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 27 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 26 $104 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $1 $0 -44%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $102 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $103 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 27 $107 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $106 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $103 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 12? Jan 13 $106 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 11 $106 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 09 $108 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 04 $217 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $216 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 26 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 23 $108 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $106 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 11 $107 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 08 $110 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 05 $106 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 02 $110 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 29 $109 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 26 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 23 $97 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 22 $108 $0 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 16 $1 $0 -20%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 14 $80 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 13 $1 $0 -25%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 09 $106 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 30h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 30h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $102 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $101 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $101 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $103 12d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $103 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $102 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $102 22d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $104 103d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL Yes 0¢ $0 110d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 110d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 112d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 112d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 114d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL Yes 0¢ $1 114d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $104 114d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $104 115d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 1¢ $2 117d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $102 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.19 (match) · 185 history records