Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:06:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d3b…c537 politics 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%15W / 29L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$2
other 33% +$6
politics 9% $0
crypto 9% $0
economics 5% $0
sports 4% $0
culture 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.8% -10.3% 22% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 9 -0.8% -10.3% 22% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 9 -0.8% -10.3% 22% 0% -10.4%
all 44 +1.2% -8.5% 34% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 2% -9.0%
10% -17.2% 2% -17.7%
15% -25.2% 2% -25.6%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early 0.30407236209658345% → late 2.0365542021947842% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage299d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $29 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $31 −$2 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $32 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $34 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 29 $5 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 12 $33 $0 +1%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Dec 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $41 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Oct 07 $1 $0 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 07 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 29 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $42 +$3 +7%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Inference" during the Q2 2025 Nvidia earnings call? Aug 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 27 $7 $0 +1%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 US Open? Aug 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether Aug 20 $43 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 7h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 12h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 12h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $29 17h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $29 19h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $29 29h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $31 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $31 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $32 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $31 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $1 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $25 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $7 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $1 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $31 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $32 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $8 166d
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $5 167d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? SELL No 100¢ $5 194d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 70¢ $5 200d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 80¢ $3 201d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 80¢ $26 201d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 80¢ $29 201d
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL No 97¢ $32 206d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records