Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:54:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2D 0x2d36…2bf1 crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10,015 (-39%) realized −$9,986 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate84%38W / 7L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$546per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$66
14 days+$66
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$10,233
sports 2% +$276
other 1% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +5.1% -4.9% 93% 53% -6.4%
≤30d 15 +5.1% -4.9% 93% 53% -6.4%
≤90d 24 +1.9% -7.8% 88% 54% -10.5%
all 45 +0.8% -8.8% 84% 47% -44.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 47% -44.8%
10% -17.5% 20% -50.1%
15% -25.5% 7% -54.9%
20% -32.8% 4% -59.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$1,693 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$9,986
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses38 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage178d
Avg bet$546
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 55¢ 26¢ $55 $26 −$30 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $216 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $106 −$99 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $253 +$15 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $201 +$22 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $273 +$49 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $251 +$21 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $80 +$16 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $121 +$16 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 12 $375 −$375 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 12 $323 +$52 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 12 $304 +$63 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 12 $262 +$46 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 12 $160 +$110 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 12 $102 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 12 $121 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 12 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 7PM ET Dec 30 $9,448 −$9,448 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Dec 30 $1,850 −$1,850 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Dec 30 $1,675 +$175 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Dec 29 $189 +$67 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Dec 29 $1,477 +$131 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Dec 29 $1,120 +$357 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Dec 29 $1,097 +$23 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Dec 29 $954 +$143 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Dec 29 $938 +$16 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Dec 29 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 4PM ET Dec 29 $861 +$74 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Dec 29 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 3AM ET Dec 29 $400 +$48 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Dec 29 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Dec 29 $727 +$71 +10%
Pistons vs. Clippers Dec 29 $180 +$29 +16%
Bears vs. 49ers Dec 29 $299 +$219 +73%
Eagles vs. Bills Dec 29 $34 +$12 +34%
Will Anthony Joshua win by KO/TKO/DQ? Dec 29 $20 +$7 +33%
Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision? Dec 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 1? Dec 20 $57 −$9 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 24m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 25m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 26m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $56 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $152 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $97 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $80 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $201 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.31 · official $59.31 (match) · 133 history records