Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d35…06b5 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,301 (-26%) realized −$6,303 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$792per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$226est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$263now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$3,940
other 8% −$1,929
world 2% −$481
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -11.0% -19.5% 53% 53% -33.2%
≤30d 30 -11.0% -19.5% 53% 53% -33.2%
≤90d 30 -11.0% -19.5% 53% 53% -33.2%
all 30 -11.0% -19.5% 53% 53% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 53% -33.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 53% -39.6%
15% -34.2% 47% -45.5%
20% -40.7% 23% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$1,094) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +20% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$378 vs −$886 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$263
Realized−$6,303
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$226
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage7d
Avg bet$792
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 58¢ $260 $263 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $528 −$520 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1,045 −$1,041 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $494 +$330 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $833 +$308 +37%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $486 −$480 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $740 −$740 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $812 −$812 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,132 +$301 +27%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $452 −$448 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $637 −$637 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $481 −$481 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,938 −$1,929 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,189 +$462 +39%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $381 +$233 +61%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $897 +$373 +42%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $474 +$227 +48%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $434 +$553 +127%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,102 −$1,094 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $456 −$447 -98%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,312 −$1,300 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,063 +$326 +31%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $2,130 +$957 +45%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $1,356 −$1,356 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $450 +$245 +55%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $584 +$255 +44%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $309 +$166 +54%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $285 +$415 +146%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,121 −$1,113 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $237 +$489 +206%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $932 +$406 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $264 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 49¢ $528 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $587 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $458 17h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $124 18h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $370 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $700 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $25 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $55 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $53 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $486 24h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $740 35h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 46¢ $812 36h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $450 39h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $4 39h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $297 39h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $4 39h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $4 39h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $164 39h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $11 39h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $198 39h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $66 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $386 43h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 64¢ $174 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 64¢ $9 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 64¢ $18 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 64¢ $176 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 64¢ $18 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 64¢ $2 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 64¢ $241 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $262.55 · official $262.55 (match) · 92 history records