Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:30:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d33…a77d crypto 300 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (223 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$254 (+9%) realized +$225 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%168W / 130L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day223.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$234
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (223 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 298 +11.4% +0.8% 56% 56% -1.8%
≤30d 298 +11.4% +0.8% 56% 56% -1.8%
≤90d 298 +11.4% +0.8% 56% 56% -1.8%
all 298 +11.4% +0.8% 56% 56% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover223.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.8% 56% -1.8%
10% ← realistic here -8.9% 56% -11.2%
15% -17.7% 56% -19.8%
20% -25.7% 55% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$225
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses168 / 130
Open positions2
Markets (closed)298 / 300
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day223.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 49¢ 96¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+95%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.20 · official $25.73 · 498 history records