Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:12:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

2D 0x2d2d…82ca other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip

Net edge+1%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$125per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$487now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+1.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	+12.0%	+1.3%	100%	100%	+1.3%
≤90d	1	+12.0%	+1.3%	100%	100%	+1.3%
all	1	+12.0%	+1.3%	100%	100%	+1.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+1.3%	100%	+1.3%
10%	-8.4%	0%	-8.4%
15%	-17.2%	0%	-17.2%
20%	-25.3%	0%	-25.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +12% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$1 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$487

Realized+$1

Unrealized+$4

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)1 / 4

History coverage10d

Avg bet$125

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$372	$378	+$5 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Brazil	31¢	30¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 21	$5	+$1	+12%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$168	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$101	1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	BUY Brazil	31¢	$10	1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$199	3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$5	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $486.60 · official $486.60 (match) · 11 history records