Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:48:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2d2d…21c1 crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-66%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 60d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$4
sports 17% −$1
other 17% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage60d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 23 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records