Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:04:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2d2b…6d08 other 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate47%42W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$12
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$11
other 26% −$2
sports 20% +$2
politics 20% +$11
crypto 1% +$2
weather 1% −$28
culture 1% +$2
tech 1% +$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.2% 29% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 23 -0.3% -9.8% 35% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 41 -1.4% -10.8% 29% 0% -9.7%
all 89 +5.6% -4.4% 47% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 7% -9.7%
10% -13.6% 4% -18.3%
15% -21.9% 4% -26.2%
20% -29.6% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses42 / 47
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage484d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 41¢ 40¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $135 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $149 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $137 −$2 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 20 $136 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $245 +$8 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $127 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $140 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $121 +$6 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $129 −$1 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $125 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $137 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $124 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $266 +$2 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $130 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $304 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $373 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $120 −$7 -6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $129 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $267 +$2 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $5 $0 -8%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $128 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $16 −$1 -8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $10 $0 -1%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $57 −$20 -35%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $413 $0 -0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $28 −$2 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $112 +$1 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $373 −$4 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $1,109 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $295 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $1,110 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $83 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $152 +$1 +1%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,109 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,649 +$3 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $43 +$2 +4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 04 $5 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Jul 03 $1 $0 -9%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 03 $5 $0 -1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Remco Evenepoel win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $95 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $41 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $135 5h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $34 47h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $115 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $149 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $22 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $113 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $137 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $137 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $136 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $132 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $122 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $127 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $127 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $121 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $121 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $140 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 55¢ $140 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $95 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $32 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $92 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $34 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 79¢ $19 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 79¢ $109 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $121 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $121 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $124 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.00 (match) · 315 history records