Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2D 0x2d2b…b548 politics 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,315 (+28%) realized +$3,845 · open +$470
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate93%28W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$395per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$4,184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days+$2,987
14 days+$2,293
30 days+$3,743
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$2,738
politics 23% +$382
other 16% +$412
tech 3% −$413
crypto 2% +$1,183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +67.2% +51.3% 100% 57% +150.6%
≤30d 19 +41.4% +27.9% 89% 42% +23.8%
≤90d 30 +28.0% +15.8% 93% 30% +20.1%
all 30 +28.0% +15.8% 93% 30% +20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.8% 30% +20.1%
10% +4.7% 20% +8.6%
15% -5.4% 20% -1.9%
20% -14.7% 17% -11.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +47% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$347 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.51 per $1 lost it wins $6.51
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$4,184
Realized+$3,845
Unrealized+$470
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses28 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)30 / 39
History coverage43d
Avg bet$395
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 37¢ 52¢ $825 $1,133 +$308 (+37%)
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No 83¢ 91¢ $830 $910 +$80 (+10%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? No 93¢ 96¢ $511 $530 +$19 (+4%)
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $506 $516 +$10 (+2%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 77¢ 84¢ $385 $418 +$32 (+8%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 63¢ 58¢ $251 $234 −$17 (-7%)
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? No 89¢ 94¢ $179 $187 +$8 (+4%)
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in June? No 82¢ 97¢ $132 $156 +$24 (+18%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? No 95¢ 100¢ $95 $100 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 22 $116 +$76 +66%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 21 $283 +$58 +20%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Jun 17 $48 +$52 +108%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Jun 16 $88 +$9 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,083 +$2,790 +258%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Jun 15 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 15 $37 +$3 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $282 −$282 -100%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 13 $413 −$413 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $134 +$66 +49%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $317 +$1,183 +374%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 02 $154 +$8 +5%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $344 +$36 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $777 +$13 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $3,396 +$32 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $675 +$7 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 30 $1,685 +$14 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $188 +$12 +6%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 25 $121 +$79 +66%
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22? May 23 $90 +$5 +6%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? May 23 $128 +$7 +5%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $98 +$2 +3%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $98 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $68 +$6 +8%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 22 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? May 16 $236 +$36 +15%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 14 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 14 $379 +$21 +6%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 10 $27 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $192 1h
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? SELL No 90¢ $340 15h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 47h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $18 47h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $40 47h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 47h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 47h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 47h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $58 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $56 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $84 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $108 2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 53¢ $53 2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 65¢ $45 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 65¢ $2 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 65¢ $13 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 65¢ $5 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 66¢ $66 3d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 52¢ $52 4d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 67¢ $67 5d
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $830 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $2,741 6d
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? BUY No 88¢ $44 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $116 6d
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? BUY No 93¢ $279 6d
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? BUY No 72¢ $22 7d
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? BUY No 72¢ $40 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,184.16 · official $4,184.16 (match) · 222 history records