Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:36:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2D 0x2d2b…eabc crypto 1613 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ bot/MM pace (173 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate95%1537W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day172.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$74
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (173 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1099 -5.7% -14.6% 93% 1% -10.3%
≤30d 1612 -0.6% -10.1% 95% 11% -9.7%
≤90d 1612 -0.6% -10.1% 95% 11% -9.7%
all 1612 -0.6% -10.1% 95% 11% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover172.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 11% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1537 / 75
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1612 / 1613
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day172.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1612 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.22 · official $17.22 (match) · 3500 history records