Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2d29…f683 sports 648 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,965 (+2%) realized +$1,854 · open +$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%342W / 279L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day56.7pace
Fees−$814est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4,129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$467
7 days+$561
14 days−$287
30 days+$416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$935
world 11% +$10
other 8% +$765
finance 2% +$533
crypto 1% +$21
tech 1% +$78
politics 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 +9.5% -0.9% 60% 54% -4.7%
≤30d 412 +0.5% -9.1% 54% 49% -8.6%
≤90d 621 +0.3% -9.2% 55% 51% -8.9%
all 621 +0.3% -9.2% 55% 51% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 51% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 45% -17.7%
15% -25.8% 39% -25.6%
20% -33.1% 31% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$82 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$4,129
Realized+$1,854
Unrealized+$111
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses342 / 279
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$814
Open positions27
Markets (closed)621 / 648
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$122
Trades / day56.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 621 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 78¢ $453 $440 −$13 (-3%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $340 $354 +$14 (+4%)
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election? No 92¢ 98¢ $329 $352 +$24 (+7%)
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan India 87¢ 100¢ $284 $327 +$43 (+15%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $300 $317 +$17 (+6%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 79¢ 93¢ $198 $233 +$35 (+18%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 61¢ 61¢ $214 $214 +$1 (+0%)
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. SSG Landers Samsung Lions 59¢ 50¢ $234 $200 −$34 (-15%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 79¢ 95¢ $157 $190 +$32 (+21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 52¢ 38¢ $212 $153 −$59 (-28%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 96¢ $129 $143 +$14 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 62¢ 62¢ $124 $125 +$1 (+1%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 59¢ $73 $118 +$44 (+61%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Hanwha Eagles 52¢ 44¢ $136 $114 −$21 (-16%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 79¢ 90¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 88¢ 96¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 37¢ 54¢ $74 $107 +$33 (+45%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $94 $98 +$4 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 64¢ 56¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $48 $52 +$4 (+8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Hanwha Eagles Hanwha Eagles 53¢ 29¢ $80 $43 −$36 (-46%)
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions KT Wiz 52¢ 41¢ $42 $34 −$9 (-20%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 42¢ 16¢ $63 $25 −$38 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $95 +$25 +27%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 17 $18 +$8 +46%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $77 +$63 +83%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $73 −$72 -99%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $172 +$128 +74%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $53 +$11 +20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $142 +$57 +40%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $117 +$52 +45%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $104 +$96 +92%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 17 $138 −$138 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $102 +$106 +104%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $155 +$85 +55%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $135 −$7 -5%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $312 +$68 +22%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $165 +$115 +70%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 16 $176 +$12 +7%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $142 +$58 +41%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $300 −$246 -82%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $106 −$106 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $235 −$235 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $146 +$94 +65%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $201 +$71 +35%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $208 +$192 +92%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 15 $73 −$57 -78%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $80 +$16 +20%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $396 +$4 +1%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 15 $223 −$37 -17%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $141 +$159 +113%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $150 +$130 +86%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $124 −$122 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $225 −$145 -64%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $65 +$34 +52%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $184 +$113 +61%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $163 −$154 -95%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +3%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 14 $86 +$4 +4%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 14 $89 −$88 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $220 −$200 -91%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $100 +$13 +13%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $328 −$66 -20%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $88 −$88 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $88 +$12 +14%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $77 +$39 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $101 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 79¢ $62 3h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 79¢ $32 3h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 44¢ $9 4h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 54¢ $5 4h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 54¢ $16 4h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 55¢ $55 4h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 52¢ $5 5h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 53¢ $59 5h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 31¢ $3 6h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 68¢ $9 6h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 68¢ $7 6h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 68¢ $2 6h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 24¢ $7 6h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 23¢ $2 6h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 25¢ $0 6h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 25¢ $1 6h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 25¢ $1 6h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $64 6h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 30¢ $1 6h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 30¢ $11 6h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 56¢ $56 7h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 58¢ $116 7h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 74¢ $7 7h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 78¢ $16 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $199 7h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 88¢ $30 7h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 49¢ $4 9h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 49¢ $21 9h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 84¢ $84 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,129.48 · official $4,130.71 (match) · 3500 history records