trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 50% | 0% | -10.2% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -4.0% | -13.2% | 40% | 0% | -15.5% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -3.4% | -12.6% | 33% | 0% | -13.9% |
| all | 26 | -9.6% | -18.2% | 42% | 0% | -14.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.2% | 0% | -14.3% |
| 10% | -26.1% | 0% | -22.5% |
| 15% | -33.2% | 0% | -30.0% |
| 20% | -39.8% | 0% | -36.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 52¢ | 52¢ | $42 | $43 | +$0 (+1%) |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 46¢ | 40¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-13%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 24 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 24 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 23 | $31 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | Jun 22 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 27 | $54 | −$9 | -18% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 25 | $59 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? | Jan 31 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Dec 16 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 26 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 14 | $14 | +$1 | +9% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Nov 14 | $24 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla | Nov 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Oct 23 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? | Oct 23 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? | Oct 22 | $3 | −$1 | -47% |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Oct 11 | $22 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? | Oct 07 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? | Oct 07 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Oct 07 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Oct 06 | $13 | +$1 | +4% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 14 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? | Sep 13 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Sep 13 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? | Sep 12 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? | Sep 12 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Sep 12 | $34 | −$2 | -5% |