Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:59:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d29…3516 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-5%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$10
other 27% −$17
politics 15% −$1
economics 11% +$1
culture 6% +$2
crypto 1% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.6% -10.1% 50% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 5 -4.0% -13.2% 40% 0% -15.5%
≤90d 6 -3.4% -12.6% 33% 0% -13.9%
all 26 -9.6% -18.2% 42% 0% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -14.3%
10% -26.1% 0% -22.5%
15% -33.2% 0% -30.0%
20% -39.8% 0% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage302d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 52¢ 52¢ $42 $43 +$0 (+1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $44 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $11 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 27 $54 −$9 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $59 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $14 +$1 +9%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 14 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Oct 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $3 −$1 -47%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $22 +$1 +6%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 06 $13 +$1 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 14 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 12 $34 −$2 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 52¢ $42 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $44 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $44 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $15 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $6 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $8 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 38¢ $30 41h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $31 43h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $9 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 42¢ $44 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 51¢ $19 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $49 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $5 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $5 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $59 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $23 31d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 31d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 31d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $0 190d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 210d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 70¢ $4 210d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 70¢ $18 210d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 70¢ $5 210d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 70¢ $6 210d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 70¢ $2 210d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.77 · official $42.52 (match) · 77 history records