Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:46:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2d25…5529 sports 181 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,092 (-4%) realized −$1,980 · open −$112
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%62W / 115L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$261est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$662now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$56
14 days+$256
30 days+$1,288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$666
sports 29% −$1,475
other 23% −$795
politics 3% +$433
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -52.3% -56.9% 0% 0% -56.9%
≤30d 29 +3.3% -6.5% 45% 45% +13.7%
≤90d 177 -17.9% -25.7% 35% 33% -13.8%
all 177 -17.9% -25.7% 35% 33% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 33% -13.8%
10% -32.8% 29% -22.1%
15% -39.3% 25% -29.6%
20% -45.3% 18% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -21% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$174 vs −$115 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$662
Realized−$1,980
Unrealized−$112
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses62 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$261
Open positions4
Markets (closed)177 / 181
History coverage81d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 38¢ 32¢ $326 $271 −$55 (-17%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 47¢ 56¢ $194 $233 +$39 (+20%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Under 41¢ 52¢ $125 $157 +$32 (+26%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Under 28¢ $129 $0 −$129 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $107 −$56 -52%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $95 −$93 -99%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $328 −$38 -12%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $205 −$199 -97%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $135 −$133 -98%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $69 −$68 -98%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: Draw at halftime? Jun 09 $106 −$101 -95%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $226 +$99 +44%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $65 −$64 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $152 +$221 +146%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $150 +$165 +109%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $55 −$53 -97%
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $257 +$80 +31%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $143 +$214 +150%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $250 +$40 +16%
Will Qatar vs. El Salvador end in a draw? Jun 06 $239 +$242 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $225 +$280 +124%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $391 −$28 -7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 31 $139 −$89 -64%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 31 $59 −$42 -70%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $154 −$152 -98%
Will Paderborn vs. Wolfsburg end in a draw? May 25 $98 +$113 +116%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $222 −$30 -14%
Will Shandong Taishan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC end in a draw? May 24 $267 +$85 +32%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $110 −$102 -93%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 24 $66 −$66 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $142 +$176 +124%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $286 +$314 +109%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $290 +$573 +197%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? May 20 $150 −$72 -48%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 20 $313 −$113 -36%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 19 $94 −$94 -100%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to Score May 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 10 $63 −$43 -68%
Will Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 10 $29 +$34 +118%
Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 10 $222 −$219 -99%
Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $66 −$39 -58%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 10 $100 −$21 -21%
Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $34 −$33 -98%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 10 $1,699 −$162 -10%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? May 10 $120 −$87 -72%
Will AS FAR vs. OC Safi end in a draw? May 07 $141 +$156 +110%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $127 −$125 -98%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 05 $147 −$90 -61%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 05 $56 −$31 -55%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 05 $129 −$77 -60%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $140 −$137 -98%
Will Zamalek SC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $373 +$271 +73%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 05 $398 −$182 -46%
Spread: Everton FC (-1.5) May 04 $159 +$18 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $76 9m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $197 9m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $127 10m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Under 28¢ $132 31m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $256 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 30¢ $87 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $107 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $147 1h
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $95 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $65 11d
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes $6 11d
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 11d
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $69 11d
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $130 11d
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 62¢ $205 11d
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes $5 11d
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $106 11d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 96¢ $265 11d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 96¢ $36 11d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 96¢ $24 11d
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $65 11d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 66¢ $226 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $150 12d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 40¢ $152 12d
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $24 12d
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $31 12d
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 45¢ $43 12d
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 65¢ $257 12d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 99¢ $210 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $661.57 · official $654.09 · 617 history records