Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:31:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2D 0x2d24…0088 crypto 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,073 (+5%) realized +$3,073 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate69%56W / 25L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$719per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$169est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,297
7 days+$3,474
14 days+$3,474
30 days+$3,460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$4,069
other 13% −$584
crypto 2% −$82
politics 0% +$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +10.4% -0.1% 81% 42% -3.7%
≤30d 34 +8.6% -1.8% 76% 41% -3.7%
≤90d 34 +8.6% -1.8% 76% 41% -3.7%
all 81 -1.2% -10.6% 69% 51% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 51% -4.0%
10% -19.2% 32% -13.2%
15% -27.0% 14% -21.6%
20% -34.1% 11% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$839) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$153 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,073
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses56 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$169
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage212d
Avg bet$719
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $3,310 +$380 +12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $683 +$146 +21%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2,616 +$694 +26%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $372 +$58 +16%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $802 +$67 +8%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $2,001 −$1,979 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5,089 +$310 +6%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $4,599 +$490 +11%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $3,613 +$984 +27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $4,402 −$794 -18%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $4,200 +$210 +5%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2,071 +$1,485 +72%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3,418 +$246 +7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $745 −$4 -1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1,902 −$216 -11%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,264 +$359 +28%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,773 +$130 +7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $19 +$2 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1,703 +$71 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,561 +$112 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $989 +$124 +13%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,442 +$47 +3%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $997 +$108 +11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $802 +$86 +11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 −$99 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $403 +$146 +36%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $701 +$43 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1,021 +$85 +8%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $839 +$182 +22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $800 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$5 +90%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $69 −$14 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 10 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 10 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 10 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 10 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 10 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 08 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 08 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 08 $34 −$14 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 08 $18 +$16 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 08 $11 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Feb 27 $23 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Feb 27 $17 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Feb 26 $12 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Feb 26 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 26 $15 −$7 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,690 54m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $152 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $151 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $3,007 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,311 3h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? SELL No 100¢ $430 3h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 86¢ $372 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $1,507 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 71¢ $812 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $869 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $125 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $507 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1,110 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $802 7h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL No $22 17h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY No 98¢ $2,001 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5,399 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $5,089 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5,089 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $4,599 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,756 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,834 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $3,613 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 81¢ $3,609 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $4,402 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4,410 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $4 34h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $4,196 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 260 history records