Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2D 0x2d1e…b4a2 politics 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$3,324 (+93%) realized +$3,404 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip
Net edge+50%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$444per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,952
7 days+$2,952
14 days+$2,952
30 days+$2,952
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 98% +$3,179
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+56.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +92.6% +74.2% 100% 100% +84.7%
≤30d 2 +92.6% +74.2% 100% 100% +84.7%
≤90d 6 +72.5% +56.1% 50% 50% +77.4%
all 6 +72.5% +56.1% 50% 50% +77.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +56.1% 50% +77.4%
10% +41.2% 50% +60.4%
15% +27.5% 50% +44.9%
20% +15.0% 50% +30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +96% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +73% · $-wt +96% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,191 vs −$105 · ×11.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.37 per $1 lost it wins $11.37
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$3,404
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage86d
Avg bet$444
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 20 $2,199 +$2,497 +114%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 20 $635 +$455 +72%
Will Alianza para el Progreso (APP) win the most seats in the 2026 Per Apr 12 $233 −$233 -100%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $96 −$41 -43%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 11 $142 +$622 +439%
Will Alianza para el Progreso (APP) win the most seats in the 2026 Per Mar 26 $87 −$40 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $36 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 0¢ $26 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 1¢ $10 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $46 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $46 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $47 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 7¢ $1 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 7¢ $151 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 6¢ $1 11d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 6¢ $114 11d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 10¢ $88 11d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 13¢ $2 11d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 13¢ $208 11d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 70¢ $1,080 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 70¢ $4,670 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 29¢ $3 23d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 29¢ $517 23d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 21¢ $8 27d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 22¢ $1,147 29d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 35¢ $547 61d
Will Alianza para el Progreso (APP) win the most seats in the 2026 Per BUY Yes 5¢ $55 69d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 5¢ $55 69d
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 27¢ $764 70d
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 5¢ $142 76d
Will Alianza para el Progreso (APP) win the most seats in the 2026 Per BUY Yes 57¢ $178 85d
Will Alianza para el Progreso (APP) win the most seats in the 2026 Per SELL Yes 11¢ $47 85d
Will Alianza para el Progreso (APP) win the most seats in the 2026 Per BUY Yes 24¢ $37 86d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 9¢ $96 86d
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $80 86d
Will Alianza para el Progreso (APP) win the most seats in the 2026 Per BUY Yes 19¢ $50 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.26 · official $35.26 (match) · 31 history records